ABSTRACT
Domestic trade is an essential contributor to economic growth and an indicator of the people's welfare. It is vulnerable to the COVID-19 crisis due to the pandemic itself and the government's measures against it. An accurate estimation of the pandemic influence on domestic trade is needed for effective economic intervention in support of the economic recovery and improvement of the well-being of the population. The aim of this paper is to estimate the magnitude and timing of the COVID-19 impact on domestic trade in Bulgaria. The data used in the study covered the period 2000-2020 with monthly data for the indicator “Turnover for wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles in Bulgaria.” This paper employed unit root tests, autocorrelation function analysis, building, estimating, forecasting ARIMA and ARCH models, and intervention analysis. The results revealed that Bulgarian domestic trade followed the difference-stationary process as unit root tests failed to reject the random walk hypothesis. The COVID-19 impact on domestic trade proved to be long-lasting and has permanently decreased its level since March 2020. The timing of the impact coincided with the government's measures against the pandemic. The drop in the volume of domestic trade was substantial and estimated at 19.3%. Following the nature of domestic trade, determined and decisive intervention is necessary if the Bulgarian government seeks to expand domestic demand and successfully procure economic recovery. © Lyubomir Todorov, 2022.
ABSTRACT
Depression is the most common psychiatric disorder in the general population, and emergency room visits for depression have been increasing for several years. In addition, the Covid-19 pandemic may lead to an explosion of psychiatric emergency room visits for this reason, with an overall prevalence of anxiety and depression that appears to be increasing since 2020. The Centre Psychiatrique d'Orientation et d'Accueil is a regional psychiatric emergency service located in Paris which records approximately 10,000 consultations per year. Among these consultations, the main symptoms are those of depression (depressive ideations, anxiety) and nearly 40 % are diagnosed with mood disorders, including depression. The management of the patient in the emergency room is based on a global evaluation, which should not be limited to the psychiatric interview. In the best case, and if compatible with the organization of the service, an initial evaluation by the nursing reception staff determines the context of the arrival of the patient, the reason and the degree of urgency of the consultation can thus be assessed from the outset. The request for care can come from the patient themself, but also from family and friends who are worried about a decline in the patient's previous condition. The consultation may also be triggered by the intervention of emergency services, particularly in the case of attempted suicide or agitation. The context of arrival, the environment, and the patient's entourage must be taken into account in order to achieve an optimal orientation. Particular attention must be paid to the first episodes (elimination of a differential diagnosis, screening for a possible bipolar disorder). The existence of an external causal factor or a comorbid personality disorder should not trivialize the consultation and lead to a faulty diagnosis of a characterized depressive episode. Drug treatment in the emergency room is usually symptomatic (anxiolytic treatment with benzodiazepines or neuroleptics, depending on the situation), and outpatient referral should always be preferred. Therapeutic adaptations can then be considered. The decision to hospitalize must always be justified, and consent for care must be rigorously evaluated. It is almost always necessary to take the patient's entourage into account as well as the potential support of the patient by the entourage. All these elements must be recorded in the file. Suicide risk assessment must be systematic for all patients consulting psychiatric emergencies, and the use of the RUD (Risk, Urgency, Dangerousness) grid can be useful. Any decision to release a patient with suicidal tendencies must be made strictly following certain conditions:a rapid psychiatric re-evaluation of the crisis, with for example the proposal of a post-emergency consultation, a supportive entourage, accepted symptomatic treatment. The registration of the suicidal patient in a monitoring system such as VigilanS can also be beneficial and reduce the risk of recidivism.